Numerical space weather forecast of the solar wind and radiation belts

Details Numerical space weather forecast of the solar wind and radiation belts Numerical space weather forecast of the solar wind and radiation belts

Dec 2008

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2008agufmsa51a1543k&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2008, abstract #SA51A-1543

Physics

2101 Coronal Mass Ejections (7513), 2102 Corotating Streams, 2774 Radiation Belts, 7924 Forecasting (2722), 7959 Models

Scientific paper

Large-scale solar wind structures and the magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) parameters at the Earth"fs position are essential for driving the space weather phenomena such as geomagnetic storms, geomagnetically induced currents, and radiation belt enhancement. We report our recent progress on the real-time space weather modeling of the solar wind and radiation belts. The global MHD solar wind model and the Fokker-Planck type radiation belt model are coupled via the time-varying solar wind MHD parameters at the Earth"fs position to give a quantitative estimate of the outer belt electron flux for a week in advance. The background solar wind source at 30 solar radii is provided from global MHD corona model based on SOHO MDI real-time observations. Coronal mass ejection (CME) is the most challenging factor. We show our test approach how to simulate the CMEs in real-time. A probabilistic forecast system of the outer radiation belt has been operated for about a year and is open to public via internet. We present how the numerical forecast and the probabilistic forecast work together to understand the space radiation environment in real-time.
u.ac.jp/

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