The RELativistic Electron Alert System for Exploration (RELEASE): Scope, Verification and Validation Status, and Intended Future Use

Details The RELativistic Electron Alert System for Exploration (RELEASE): Scope, Verification and Validation Status, and Intended Future Use The RELativistic Electron Alert System for Exploration (RELEASE): Scope, Verification and Validation Status, and Intended Future Use

Dec 2008

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2008agufmsa51a1540p&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2008, abstract #SA51A-1540

Physics

2114 Energetic Particles (7514), 7924 Forecasting (2722), 7938 Impacts On Humans, 7984 Space Radiation Environment

Scientific paper

The RELEASE method of short-term forecasting of the intensity of prompt solar energetic protons of hazardous energies (~40 MeV) with relativistic electrons has been developed. Electrons are well known to provide the first sign of a solar particle event in progress, approximately one our ahead of more dangerous protons. The forecasting of sudden intensity increases of protons from solar energetic particle events is relevant for in-situ and regional (e.g., Earth-moon system) radiation protection of humans on exploration missions. The method utilizes the speed advantage of electrons over up to 40 MeV protons and newly discovered correlations of inverse rise time and intensity between the two dominant particle species of solar eruptions. The effectiveness of this tool bases on the observed similarities in particle transport between the Sun and 1 AU. Electrons act as test particles by probing the ever- changing heliospheric transport conditions that act on the slower moving protons. In February 2008, the method has been implemented with near-real- time data of the COSTEP instrument onboard SOHO located at L1. Forecasting output is available live via the internet. The ongoing verification and validation activity so far has proven the robustness and reliability of the tool under quiet conditions with an extremely low false-alarm rate. Ongoing activities aimed at improving the method with archived COSTEP data over a full solar cycle will be presented.

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