Investigating Automated Coronal Mass Ejection Prediction Using a Solar Cycle of MDI Magnetograms

Details Investigating Automated Coronal Mass Ejection Prediction Using a Solar Cycle of MDI Magnetograms Investigating Automated Coronal Mass Ejection Prediction Using a Solar Cycle of MDI Magnetograms

Dec 2008

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2008agufmsa51a1533m&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2008, abstract #SA51A-1533

Physics

7513 Coronal Mass Ejections (2101), 7524 Magnetic Fields, 7924 Forecasting (2722)

Scientific paper

This investigation employs the entire set of synoptic line-of-site magnetograms from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory's (SOHO) Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) to calculate a plethora of characteristics of the magnetic field in active regions, including measures of non-potentiality, the gradient-weighted length of neutral lines, the length along the primary neutral line, and time variation of total flux. These measures are calculated for the disk passage of 1037 NOAA active regions spanning Solar Cycle 23 from 1996 - 2008 in an attempt to determine the ability of line-of-site magnetograms to be used as a predictor of coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Several investigators have analyzed photospheric magnetic field observations to determine the potential for solar flare and CME prediction [Falconer, 2001, 2003, 2008; Leka and Barnes, 2003, 2006]. Using data from a variety of sources, both line-of-site and vector magnetograms have been studied. Until now the studies have been restricted to a relatively small sample size and considered just a few measures of non-potentiality. This expansive study is accomplished with an IDL code that automatically searches the MDI database for data related to any NOAA AR, uses a three-iteration primary neutral line finder on remapped data [Bokenkamp, 2007], applies a constant-alpha force-free field model [Allisandrakis, 1981], and calculates several measures of non-potentiality [Falconer, 2008]. The code has also been designed as a tool for recording and displaying these variables for any specific NOAA AR or user-defined solar location. A similar program can be used with the vector magnetic field data from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) that will become available after the launch of the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO).

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