Real-Time and Event-Based Prediction Capabilities of Modern Space Science Models

Physics

Scientific paper

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7900 Space Weather, 7924 Forecasting (2722), 7959 Models, 7969 Satellite Drag (1241), 7974 Solar Effects

Scientific paper

The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is a US inter-agency activity aiming at research in support of the generation of advanced space weather models. As one of its main functions, the CCMC provides to researchers the use of space science models, even if they are not model owners themselves. The second CCMC activity is to support Space Weather forecasting at national Space Weather Forecasting Centers. This second activity involves model evaluations, model transitions to operations, and the development of draft Space Weather Forecasting tools. This presentation will focus on the latter element. Specifically, we will analyze current forecasting potential of state-of-the-art models. These capabilities will be demonstrated by an example, and we will comment on readiness for operations.

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