A prediction for the size of sunspot cycle 22

Details A prediction for the size of sunspot cycle 22 A prediction for the size of sunspot cycle 22

Feb 1988

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1988georl..15..125w&link_type=abstract

Geophysical Research Letters (ISSN 0094-8276), vol. 15, Feb. 1988, p. 125-128. NASA-USAF-supported research.

Physics

19

Prediction Analysis Techniques, Solar Cycles, Sunspots, Annual Variations, Correlation Coefficients

Scientific paper

Based on 'annual' averages, a bivariate analysis of the maximum amplitude of the sunspot cycle against its minimum amplitude and the minimum value of the aa geomagnetic index (in the vicinity of sunspot cycle minimum) results in a fit that closely matches the observable record. The bilinear fit has a high coefficient of correlation (r = 0.982) and a small standard deviation (s = 9.5), suggesting that it may be useful for predicting the size of a sunspot cycle 3 to 4 years before maximum amplitude occurrence. Applying the fit to cycle 22, the annual average of maximum amplitude is found to be 92 + or - 19 (equivalent to 96 + or - 20 in terms of the 13-month running mean or smoothed sunspot number).

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