The peak of solar cycle 22 - Predictions in retrospect

Details The peak of solar cycle 22 - Predictions in retrospect The peak of solar cycle 22 - Predictions in retrospect

Jul 1992

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1992angeo..10..453b&link_type=abstract

(European Geophysical Society, General Assembly, 16th, Wiesbaden, Germany, Apr. 22-26, 1991) Annales Geophysicae (ISSN 0992-7689

Physics

10

Predictions, Solar Cycles, Sunspots, Dynamo Theory, Solar Terrestrial Interactions

Scientific paper

The many techniques which are currently available for the prediction of the magnitude of the peak of a forthcoming sunspot cycle are briefly reviewed, with particular emphasis on the more scientifically based 'precursor' methods. The published predictions for the size of solar cycle 22 are discussed, with a breakdown of the data by technique used and lead time achieved. Only 10 of the 45 predictions reported came within +/- 10 percent of the observed value and, of these, seven used precursor methods. Several peculiarities of cycle 22 in the sunspot time series are noted.

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