Magnetospheric Responses to Extreme Solar Wind Conditions and Dst Prediction for October-November 2003

Details Magnetospheric Responses to Extreme Solar Wind Conditions and Dst Prediction for October-November 2003 Magnetospheric Responses to Extreme Solar Wind Conditions and Dst Prediction for October-November 2003

May 2004

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2004agusmsh53a..07l&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Spring Meeting 2004, abstract #SH53A-07

Physics

2134 Interplanetary Magnetic Fields, 2722 Forecasting, 2730 Magnetosphere: Inner, 2778 Ring Current, 2784 Solar Wind/Magnetosphere Interactions

Scientific paper

An explicit model for predicting Dst based on solar wind data for the years 1995-1999 gives a good fit with a prediction efficiency of 88%, a linear correlation coefficient between the Dst index and the model of 0.94, and a RMS error of 6.4 nT. The same model applied to the first half of 2000 gave a prediction efficiency of 91%, a linear correlation coefficient of 0.95, and a RMS error of 7.9 nT. During the years 1995-1999, the solar wind parameters measured by Wind and ACE seemed rather tamed: solar wind speed remained below 1000 km/s and the z-component of interplanetary magnetic field, Bz, was never below -40 nT. More violent solar wind conditions were recorded recently. For example, during October-November 2003, Bz was twice below -50 nT and solar wind speed was above 1500 km/s for extended time. We will show that how the prediction model works under such extreme conditions and discuss the implication. In addition, we attempt to infer the solar wind speed based on the our model prediction, assuming the Dst index, Bz, and solar wind density are accurate.

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