Physics
Scientific paper
Aug 2004
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2004georl..3116208g&link_type=abstract
Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 31, Issue 16, CiteID L16208
Physics
6
Global Change: Climate Dynamics (3309), Meteorology And Atmospheric Dynamics: Ocean/Atmosphere Interactions (0312, 4504), Meteorology And Atmospheric Dynamics: Tropical Meteorology
Scientific paper
A quantitative estimate using daily circulation data for 55 years reveals that the potential predictability of monthly mean summer monsoon climate (a ratio between `external' and `internal' interannual variances) has decreased by almost a factor of two during the decades of 1980's and 1990's as compared to that during 1950's and 1960's associated with the major interdecadal transition of climate in mid-1970's. During the same period, however, the potential predictability of the summer climate over the central and eastern tropical Pacific has increased by a factor of two. The decrease in potential predictability of monsoon is partly due to a large decrease in `external' variability during the recent decades as a result of interdecadal modulation of the mean monsoon circulation and partly due to `internal' variability remaining relatively high. It is shown that the decrease in `internal' variability due to decrease in intraseasonal activity during this period is rather small and can not compensate the decrease is `external' variability resulting in significant decrease in monsoon predictability.
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