Solar activity prediction from reconstruction of wavelet analysis

Details Solar activity prediction from reconstruction of wavelet analysis Solar activity prediction from reconstruction of wavelet analysis

Sep 2003

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2003esasp.535...83d&link_type=abstract

In: Solar variability as an input to the Earth's environment. International Solar Cycle Studies (ISCS) Symposium, 23 - 28 June 2

Physics

Solar Activity: Predictions

Scientific paper

Solar activity prediction methods have been developed, but no one can predict accurately. This paper will report a new alternative method by using reconstruction of wavelet analysis. Weighted wavelet Z-transform is used to produce periodicities spectral at current cycle. Then the analysis results are used to reconstruct the current cycle and predict the next cycle. Preliminary results show that the method is good enough to predict time of next peak, but poor in predicting amplitude of solar maximum. Geomagnetic precursor method recognized as the best method so far to predict solar maximum amplitude may be combined to this method.

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