Active-Region Monitoring and Flare Forecasting I. Data Processing and First Results

Details Active-Region Monitoring and Flare Forecasting I. Data Processing and First Results Active-Region Monitoring and Flare Forecasting I. Data Processing and First Results

Sep 2002

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2002soph..209..171g&link_type=abstract

Solar Physics, v. 209, Issue 1, p. 171-183 (2002).

Physics

58

Scientific paper

This paper discusses a near real-time approach to solar active-region monitoring and flare prediction using the Big Bear Solar Observatory Active Region Monitor (ARM). Every hour, ARM reads, calibrates, and analyses a variety of data including: full-disk Hα images from the Global Hα Network; EUV, continuum, and magnetogram data from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO); and full-disk magnetograms from the Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG). For the first time, magnetic gradient maps derived from GONG longitudinal magnetograms are now available on-line and are found to be a useful diagnostic of flare activity. ARM also includes a variety of active-region properties from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Environment Center, such as up-to-date active-region positions, GOES 5-min X-ray data, and flare-to-region identifications. Furthermore, we have developed a Flare Prediction System which estimates the probability for each region to produce C-, M-, or X-class flares based on nearly eight years of NOAA data from cycle 22. This, in addition to BBSO's daily solar activity reports, has proven a useful resource for activity forecasting.

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