Predicting Solar Cycle 24

Details Predicting Solar Cycle 24 Predicting Solar Cycle 24

Dec 2008

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2008agufmsh51a1593s&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2008, abstract #SH51A-1593

Physics

Optics

1

7524 Magnetic Fields, 7536 Solar Activity Cycle (2162), 7924 Forecasting (2722)

Scientific paper

We review the Solar Polar Field Precursor Solar cycle Prediction Method. There are now four solar minimum direct measurements by WSO of the polar fields with a 3-arcminute aperture. The first two years of data were contaminated by scattered light from dirty optics, resulting in a reduction of the polar field values. Each percent of scattered light [measured just outside the limb] reduces the magnetic field by 3.5%. We correct for this contamination and present updated polar field values. Currently, the polar fields are the weakest since 1976. We present evidence from interplanetary magntic field measurements that the polar fields during the minimum ~1965 was lower than during the minimum ~1996. The current polar fields have not shown sign of weakening, and we estimate based on polar fields from the five most recent solar minima that solar cycle 24 will only reach a maximum of Rz ~70 ± 10, probably in 2013, corresponding to F10.7 values in the range of 125 ± 10.

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