Possible Ursid Outburst on December 22, 2000

Physics

Scientific paper

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Scientific paper

The Ursid shower has broad Filament-type outbursts around the perihelion passage of parent 8P/Tuttle, but also isolated narrow outbursts at aphelion. We calculated Tuttle's dust trail encounters in the same way as for the Leonid showers. We discovered that it takes 6 centuries to change the orbit enough to bring the meteoroids to Earth's orbit. During that time, the meteoroids and comet separate in mean anomaly by about 6 years, explaining the usual aphelion accurrences. Our study predicts enhanced activity on December 22, 2000, at around 7h29m UT.

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