Evidence of a relation between El Nino and QBO, and for an El Nino in 1991-92

Physics

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El Nino, Sea Surface Temperature, Southern Oscillation, Stratosphere, Wind (Meteorology), Air Water Interactions, Tropical Regions, Zonal Flow (Meteorology)

Scientific paper

Evidence is presented of a pattern in the relation between El Nino and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in the equatorial low stratosphere such that an El Nino tends to be associated with a QBO east-wind maximum except when the El Nino associated with the previous east-wind maximum was a major one and/or the SST maximum followed the previous east-wind maximum by a few seasons. There is considerable similarity between these results and those obtained by Gray and Sheaffer (1991) in the sense that both analyses suggest that El Ninos tend to be associated with the east-wind phase of the QBO in the equatorial low stratosphere, but that this relation 'skips a beat' on occasion. Comparison with earlier 'skips' shows that an El Nino would be most likely before the next east-wind maximum.

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