Forecast of the Amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 Based on the Disturbed Days Precursor

Details Forecast of the Amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 Based on the Disturbed Days Precursor Forecast of the Amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 Based on the Disturbed Days Precursor

May 2007

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2007aas...210.9205r&link_type=abstract

American Astronomical Society Meeting 210, #92.05; Bulletin of the American Astronomical Society, Vol. 39, p.209

Physics

3

Scientific paper

R. J. Thompson (1993, Solar Physics 148, 383) exhibited a significant linear relationship between the number of geomagnetically disturbed days (those that exceed some threshold value of the Ap or aa index) in a solar cycle and the sum of the peak sunspot number in that cycle and the next cycle. Thus, the number of disturbed days during a full cycle, together with the peak sunspot number in that cycle, is a predictor of the amplitude of the next cycle. The work reported here applies Thompson’s method to the current cycle. Linear relationships as described above are derived both for the pure aa record (1868-2006) and for a composite of aa (1868-1931) and Ap (1932-2006). For the composite record, the relationship between aa and Ap is determined cycle-by-cycle during the period of overlap. The method is tested for sensitivity to the adopted Ap (or equivalent aa) threshold. The highest smoothed monthly sunspot number for Cycle 24 is forecasted to be Rz = 115 ± 30, where the uncertainty is conservatively based on the full spread of the data around the fitted line in the sunspot number direction. In terms of smoothed monthly 10.7-cm radio flux, the forecast is F10.7 = 164 ± 28.

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