NASA/MSFC prediction techniques

Details NASA/MSFC prediction techniques NASA/MSFC prediction techniques

Feb 1987

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1987nascp2460..151s&link_type=abstract

In its Upper and Middle Atmospheric Density Modeling Requirements for Spacecraft Design and Operations p 151-153 (SEE N87-20665

Physics

Data Smoothing, Linear Prediction, Regression Analysis, Solar Activity, Solar Cycles, Forecasting, Lagrange Multipliers

Scientific paper

The NASA/MSFC method of forecasting is more formal than NOAA's. The data is smoothed by the Lagrangian method and linear regression prediction techniques are used. The solar activity period is fixed at 11 years--the mean period of all previous cycles. Interestingly, the present prediction for the time of the next solar minimum is February or March of 1987, which, within the uncertainties of two methods, can be taken to be the same as the NOAA result.

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