When do the geomagnetic aa and Ap indices disagree?

Physics

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The next solar and geomagnetic cycle has been predicted using the Ap and the extensive aa index databases (Thompson, Solar Phys. 148 (1993) 383). Current real-time predictions use the Ap index. Though the correlation between the two indices is at the 0.9 level, the aa and Ap index do not always agree, even though the two aa stations are included in the Ap index. We investigate the differences between these indices, looking for trends at different levels of activity, different solar cycle periods, different times of the day, etc. We find a lower correlation during even numbered solar cycles, a higher correlation late in the UT day, and a higher correlation during solar maximum period.

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