On the influence of stratospheric water vapor changes on the tropospheric circulation

Physics

Scientific paper

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Atmospheric Composition And Structure: Middle Atmosphere: Constituent Transport And Chemistry (3334), Global Change: Climate Dynamics (0429, 3309), Atmospheric Processes: Climate Change And Variability (1616, 1635, 3309, 4215, 4513), Atmospheric Processes: Middle Atmosphere Dynamics (0341, 0342), Atmospheric Processes: Stratosphere/Troposphere Interactions

Scientific paper

Observations suggest that the mixing ratio of water vapour in the stratosphere has increased by 20-50% between the 1960s and mid-1990s. Here we show that inclusion of such a stratospheric water vapour (SWV) increase in a state-of-the-art climate model modifies the circulation of the extratropical troposphere: the modeled increase in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index is 40% of the observed increase in NAO index between 1965 and 1995, suggesting that if the SWV trend is real, it explains a significant fraction of the observed NAO trend. Our results imply that SWV changes provide a novel mechanism for communicating the effects of large tropical volcanic eruptions and ENSO events to the extratropical troposphere over timescales of a few years, which provides a mechanism for interannual climate predictability. Finally, we discuss our results in the context of regional climate change associated with changes in methane emissions.

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