Year ahead prediction of US landfalling hurricane numbers: the optimal combination of multiple levels of activity since 1900

Details Year ahead prediction of US landfalling hurricane numbers: the optimal combination of multiple levels of activity since 1900 Year ahead prediction of US landfalling hurricane numbers: the optimal combination of multiple levels of activity since 1900

2006-11-07

arxiv.org/abs/physics/0611070v1

Physics

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics

Scientific paper

In earlier work we considered methods for predicting future levels of
hurricane activity based on the assumption that historical mean activity was at
one constant level from 1900 to 1994, and has been at another constant level
since then. We now make this model a little more subtle, and account for the
possibility of four different levels of mean hurricane activity since 1900.

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