Year ahead prediction of US landfalling hurricane numbers: the optimal combination of long and short baselines

Details Year ahead prediction of US landfalling hurricane numbers: the optimal combination of long and short baselines Year ahead prediction of US landfalling hurricane numbers: the optimal combination of long and short baselines

2005-12-13

arxiv.org/abs/physics/0512113v1

Physics

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics

Scientific paper

Annual levels of US landfalling hurricane activity averaged over the last 11 years (1995-2005) are higher than those averaged over the previous 95 years (1900-1994). How, then, should we best predict hurricane activity rates for next year? Based on the assumption that the higher rates will continue we use an optimal combination of averages over the long and short time-periods to produce a prediction that minimises MSE.

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