Year-ahead prediction of US landfalling hurricane numbers: intense hurricanes

Details Year-ahead prediction of US landfalling hurricane numbers: intense hurricanes Year-ahead prediction of US landfalling hurricane numbers: intense hurricanes

2005-12-10

arxiv.org/abs/physics/0512092v1

Physics

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics

Scientific paper

We continue with our program to derive simple practical methods that can be used to predict the number of US landfalling hurricanes a year in advance. We repeat an earlier study, but for a slightly different definition landfalling hurricanes, and for intense hurricanes only. We find that the averaging lengths needed for optimal predictions of numbers of intense hurricanes are longer than those needed for optimal predictions of numbers of hurricanes of all strengths.

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