Year-ahead prediction of US landfalling hurricane numbers

Details Year-ahead prediction of US landfalling hurricane numbers Year-ahead prediction of US landfalling hurricane numbers

2005-07-21

arxiv.org/abs/physics/0507165v1

Physics

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics

Scientific paper

We present a simple method for the year-ahead prediction of the number of
hurricanes making landfall in the US. The method is based on averages of
historical annual hurricane numbers, and we perform a backtesting study to find
the length of averaging window that would have given the best predictions in
the past.

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