Physics
Scientific paper
Mar 2006
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2006georl..3306403b&link_type=abstract
Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 33, Issue 6, CiteID L06403
Physics
9
Hydrology: Streamflow, Global Change: Atmosphere (0315, 0325), Global Change: Climate Variability (1635, 3305, 3309, 4215, 4513), Geographic Location: Europe, Global Change: Regional Climate Change
Scientific paper
More frequent western atmospheric circulation over Europe results in increased precipitation in winter, and could result in increasing river discharges. We made a quantitative assessment of the impact of variation in atmospheric circulation, defined by the frequency of western circulation in the Großwetterlagen classification system and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, on variation in basin-average precipitation and winter discharges (December-February) of eleven large river basins that drain northwest Europe. Annual winter discharges amounts are highly correlated among these rivers (up to r2 = 0.82, decreasing with increasing inter-basin distance), which may point to a common atmospheric forcing. The number of days of western atmospheric circulation in winter as indicated by the Großwetterlagen classification system is more closely related (r2 = 0.06 to r2 = 0.28, p < 0.05 or better) to winter river discharges than the NAO index. We therefore conclude that the frequency of western atmospheric circulation over Europe is a better indicator of climate variability and climate change impacts on river discharges in northwest Europe.
Aerts Jeroen C. J. H.
Bouwer Laurens M.
Vermaat Jan E.
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