Physics – Geophysics
Scientific paper
Oct 2009
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2009georl..3619806b&link_type=abstract
Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 36, Issue 19, CiteID L19806
Physics
Geophysics
3
Atmospheric Processes: Climate Change And Variability (1616, 1635, 3309, 4215, 4513), Atmospheric Processes: Instruments And Techniques, Mathematical Geophysics: Time Series Analysis (1872, 4277, 4475), Policy Sciences: Benefit-Cost Analysis
Scientific paper
An ensemble of runs made by a regional climate model was used to estimate the expected change in humidity in the atmosphere between 1950 and 2100. Output from the model runs at a midlatitude European site is used as a proxy for a perfect climate record of specific humidity at the 300 hPa level from which trends were derived. The trend analysis demonstrates that it takes 30 years for a trend to show up in the perfect climate record. The model output was degraded to simulate observations made with the best radiosonde equipment for recording water vapor. Results indicate that it would be necessary to conduct observations for at least five decades until a trend expected by current models could be confirmed by observations to within 20%.
Boers R.
van Meijgaard Erik
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