Wavelet analysis and forecasting of VTEC obtained with GPS observations over European latitudes

Physics

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Scientific paper

The TEC time series of ionospheric quiet and disturbed conditions over different European stations for a half of the solar cycle period from 1995 to 2001 were analyzed in this study. The wavelet analysis enabled to detect disturbances in TEC during the period considered, as well as to compute coherences and time delays between wavelet transform coefficients of TEC corresponding to different stations located near the same meridian. The information about the time delay between different GPS stations can be useful for prediction purposes. The forecasts of the TEC time series for the stations considered were computed by the autoregressive moving average (ARMA) method for 1, 2 and 3 h ahead at a single location, and compared with the corresponding future values of TEC data. A sample of the results for representative periods is presented. The prediction accuracy depends on the starting prediction epochs and ionospheric conditions, and for a few hours ahead it is of the order of 5% of the real TEC values over a GPS station.

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