Virtual volatility

Details Virtual volatility Virtual volatility

2006-07-11

arxiv.org/abs/physics/0607101v2

Physics

Physics and Society

15 pages, 2 figures, elsart.cls, Accepted to Physica A. Added few comments that clarify data used for empirical work

Scientific paper

10.1016/j.physa.2006.10.017

We introduce the concept of virtual volatility. This simple but new measure shows how to quantify the uncertainty in the forecast of the drift component of a random walk. The virtual volatility also is a useful tool in understanding the stochastic process for a given portfolio. In particular, and as an example, we were able to identify mean reversion effect in our portfolio. Finally, we briefly discuss the potential practical effect of the virtual volatility on an investor asset allocation strategy.

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