Physics
Scientific paper
Oct 2008
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2008georl..3519702w&link_type=abstract
Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 35, Issue 19, CiteID L19702
Physics
6
Atmospheric Processes: Climate Change And Variability (1616, 1635, 3309, 4215, 4513), Atmospheric Processes: General Circulation (1223), Global Change: Global Climate Models (3337, 4928)
Scientific paper
The atmospheric circulation changes predicted by climate models are often described using sea level pressure, which generally shows a strengthening of the mid-latitude westerlies. Recent observed variability is dominated by the Northern Annular Mode (NAM) which is equivalent barotropic, so that wind variations of the same sign are seen at all levels. However, in model predictions of the response to anthropogenic forcing, there is a well-known enhanced warming at low levels over the northern polar cap in winter. This means that there is a strong baroclinic component to the response. The projection of the response onto a NAM-like zonal index varies with height. While at the surface most models project positively onto the zonal index, throughout most of the depth of the troposphere many of the models give negative projections. The response to anthropogenic forcing therefore has a distinctive baroclinic signature which is very different to the NAM.
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