Using the QBO to predict the number of hurricanes hitting the U.S

Details Using the QBO to predict the number of hurricanes hitting the U.S Using the QBO to predict the number of hurricanes hitting the U.S

2007-10-17

arxiv.org/abs/0710.3229v1

Physics

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics

Scientific paper

A simple study of the relationship between the QBO and the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic, both in the Basin and hitting the U.S. coastline, demonstrates that the QBO is not a particularly useful index to help predict hurricane numbers on five-year time scales. It is shown that there is very little difference between the number of hurricanes following easterly winds in the equatorial stratosphere and the number that follow westerly winds. Given this it is reasonable one would make better predictions just using the mean number of hurricanes in lieu of using the QBO and this is also simply demonstrated here.

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