Physics
Scientific paper
Dec 1989
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1989phdt........32p&link_type=abstract
Ph.D. Thesis Rand Graduate Inst. for Policies Study, Santa Monica, CA.
Physics
Alternatives, Launch Vehicles, Planning, Space Transportation, Spacecraft Launching, Technology Assessment, Cost Effectiveness, Costs, Payloads, Space Stations
Scientific paper
Combinations of U.S. launch vehicles capable of meeting a range of government space traffic needs between 1990 and 2010 are evaluated. The purpose of this evaluation is to clarify alternatives available to the United States in pursuing potential national goals and to increase understanding of the implications of those alternatives. Wartime requirements for space launches were not included. Four levels of U.S. space traffic demand for 1990 to 2010 were defined. The first level was budget constrained to limit new program starts. The second level was a continuation of current space traffic plans, including the Space Station program. The third level assumed an expansion of civil space efforts such as a return to the Moon. The fourth level assumed expanded military space efforts such as the development of strategic defenses. Differing combination of existing and proposed launch vehicles were defined to fulfill each demand level. The costs and uncertainties (e.g., payload losses) associated with each launch vehicle combination were estimated. The interrelations of payload costs, launch vehicle costs, and system reliabilities are discussed in the appendices. The space transportation planning process, current issues, and political factors affecting analysis are reviewed. Senior space transportation planners and decision-makers were interviewed on differing institutional criteria for evaluating launch vehicle mixes. Evaluation criteria were defined to assess the launch vehicle mixes for each demand level and for the case of uncertain demand. Recommendations on preferred U.S. actions in space transportation are made based both on analyses and interview results.
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