Physics – Physics and Society
Scientific paper
2012-03-14
Physics
Physics and Society
69 pages, 63 figures, 4 tables
Scientific paper
Inspired by the legendary Games held in ancient Greece, modern Olympics represent the world's largest pageant of athletic skill and competitive spirit. Athletes' performances at the Olympic Games mirror, since more than a century, human potentialities in sports, and thus provide an optimal source of information for studying the evolution of sport achievements and predicting the limits that athletes can reach. Unfortunately, the models introduced so far for the description of athletes' performances are either sophisticated or unrealistic, and more importantly, do not provide a unified theory for sport performances. Here, we address this issue by showing that relative performance improvements of medal winners at the Olympics are normally distributed, implying that the evolution of performance values can be simply described as an exponential approach to an a priori unknown limiting performance value. This law holds for all specialties in athletics - including running, jumping and throwing - and swimming. We present a self-consistent method, based on normality hypothesis testing, able to predict limiting performance values in all specialties. We further quantify the most likely years in which athletes will breach challenging performance walls in running, jumping, throwing and swimming events, as well as the probability that new world records will be established at the next edition of the Olympic Games.
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