Physics
Scientific paper
Jul 2010
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2010georl..3714707r&link_type=abstract
Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 37, Issue 14, CiteID L14707
Physics
5
Global Change: Biogeochemical Cycles, Processes, And Modeling (0412, 0414, 0793, 4805, 4912), Global Change: Instruments And Techniques, Atmospheric Processes: Global Climate Models (1626, 4928), Policy Sciences: Decision Making Under Uncertainty (1918)
Scientific paper
We present a comprehensive evaluation of uncertainties in the Global Warming Potential (GWP) and Global Temperature Change Potential (GTP) of CH4, using a simple climate model calibrated to AOGCMs and coupled climate-carbon cycle models assessed in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). In addition, we estimate uncertainties in these metrics probabilistically by using a method that does not rely on AOGCMs but instead builds on historical constraints and uncertainty estimates of current radiative forcings. While our mean and median GWPs and GTPs estimates are consistent with previous studies, our analysis suggests that uncertainty ranges for GWPs are almost twice as large as estimated in the AR4. Relative uncertainties for GTPs are larger than for GWPs, nearly twice as high for a time horizon of 100 years. Given this uncertainty, our results imply the possibility for substantial future adjustments in best-estimate values of GWPs and in particular GTPs.
Bodeker Greg
Manning Martin
Meinshausen Malte
Reisinger Andy
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