Uncertain Climate Forecasts From Multimodel Ensembles: When to Use Them and When to Ignore Them

Details Uncertain Climate Forecasts From Multimodel Ensembles: When to Use Them and When to Ignore Them Uncertain Climate Forecasts From Multimodel Ensembles: When to Use Them and When to Ignore Them

2010-06-28

arxiv.org/abs/1006.5327v1

Physics

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics

Scientific paper

Uncertainty around multimodel ensemble forecasts of changes in future climate
reduces the accuracy of those forecasts. For very uncertain forecasts this
effect may mean that the forecasts should not be used. We investigate the use
of the well-known Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) to make the decision as
to whether a forecast should be used or ignored.

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