Physics
Scientific paper
Oct 2002
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2002georl..29s..24b&link_type=abstract
Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 29, Issue 19, pp. 24-1, CiteID 1918, DOI 10.1029/2002GL015191
Physics
8
Global Change: Climate Dynamics (3309), Meteorology And Atmospheric Dynamics: Ocean/Atmosphere Interactions (0312, 4504), Oceanography: General: Climate And Interannual Variability (3309), Oceanography: General: Equatorial Oceanography, Global Change: Oceans (4203)
Scientific paper
An analysis of ocean surface temperature records show that low frequency changes of tropical Pacific temperature lead global surface air temperature changes by about 4 years. Anomalies of tropical Pacific surface temperature are in turn preceded by subsurface temperature anomalies in the southern tropical Pacific by approximately 7 years. The results suggest that much of the decade to decade variations in global air temperature may be attributed to tropical Pacific decadal variability. The results also suggest that subsurface temperature anomalies in the southern tropical Pacific can be used as a predictor for decadal variations of global surface air temperature. Since the southern tropical Pacific temperature shows a distinct cooling over the last 8 years, the possibility exists that the warming trend in global surface air temperature observed since the late 1970's may soon weaken.
Bratcher Amy J.
Giese Benjamin S.
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