Physics – Geophysics
Scientific paper
Aug 2009
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2009georl..3616706l&link_type=abstract
Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 36, Issue 16, CiteID L16706
Physics
Geophysics
9
Mathematical Geophysics: Persistence, Memory, Correlations, Clustering (3265, 7857), Atmospheric Processes: Climate Change And Variability (1616, 1635, 3309, 4215, 4513)
Scientific paper
Previous statistical detection methods indicate that, on a global scale, the observed warming cannot be attributed solely to natural fluctuations. Here we estimate the probability W(Δ) that an observed trend Δ occurs naturally, and determine the anthropogenic part A Q (Δ) of the temperature increase within a given confidence interval Q. To obtain these quantities, we do not use climate simulations, but assume as statistical null hypothesis that monthly temperature records are long-term correlated with a Hurst exponent α > 0.5 (including also nonstationary records with α values above 1). We show that for confidence intervals with Q above 80% analytical expressions for W(Δ) and A Q (Δ) can be derived, which request as input solely the Hurst exponent, as well as the temperature increase Δ obtained from the linear regression line and the standard deviation σ t around it. We apply this approach to global and local temperature data and discuss the different results.
Bunde Armin
Lennartz Sabine
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