Trend analysis of upper stratospheric Umkehr ozone data for evidence of turnaround

Physics

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Atmospheric Composition And Structure: General Or Miscellaneous, Global Change: Atmosphere (0315, 0325), Atmospheric Composition And Structure: Middle Atmosphere-Composition And Chemistry

Scientific paper

Recent upper stratospheric (~35-45 km) Umkehr ozone data from three high-quality stations have been examined, with residual and change-in-trend analyses performed. These data show a consistent feature of mildly positive tendency in values for the recent several years. Trend analyses of these data yield significant positive change-in-trend estimates of about 0.75% per year since 1996 relative to negative trends of about -0.55% per year existing prior to 1996, leading to a (nonsignificant) estimate of about 0.2% per year positive trend for the recent 5-year period since the 1996 change-in-trend date.

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