Towards probabilistic projections of climate change impacts on global crop yields

Details Towards probabilistic projections of climate change impacts on global crop yields Towards probabilistic projections of climate change impacts on global crop yields

Apr 2008

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2008georl..3508705t&link_type=abstract

Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 35, Issue 8, CiteID L08705

Physics

Geophysics

4

Global Change: Impacts Of Global Change (1225), Mathematical Geophysics: Uncertainty Quantification (1873), Mathematical Geophysics: Probabilistic Forecasting (3238), Global Change: Global Climate Models (3337, 4928), Policy Sciences: Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Scientific paper

There is a widely recognized need in the scientific and policy communities for probabilistic estimates of climate change impacts, beyond simple scenario analysis. Here we propose a methodology to evaluate one major climate change impact - changes in global average yields of wheat, maize, and barley by 2030 - by a probabilistic approach that integrates uncertainties in climate change and crop yield responses to temperature, precipitation, and carbon dioxide. The resulting probability distributions, which are conditional on assuming the SRES A1B emission scenario and no agricultural adaptation, indicate expected changes of +1.6%, -14.1%, -1.8% for wheat, maize, and barley, with 95% probability intervals of (-4.1, +6.7), (-28.0, -4.3), (-11.0, 6.2) in percent of current yields, respectively. This fully probabilistic analysis aims at quantifying the range of plausible outcomes and allows us to gauge the relative importance of different sources of uncertainty.

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