Time Series Modeling of Sunspot Numbers Using Long-Range Cyclical Dependence

Details Time Series Modeling of Sunspot Numbers Using Long-Range Cyclical Dependence Time Series Modeling of Sunspot Numbers Using Long-Range Cyclical Dependence

Jul 2009

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2009soph..257..371g&link_type=abstract

Solar Physics, Volume 257, Issue 2, pp.371-381

Physics

3

Fractional Integration, Long-Range Dependence, Sunspot Cycles, Sunspot Numbers

Scientific paper

This paper deals with the analysis of the sunspot number time series using a new technique based on cyclical long-range dependence. The results show that sunspot numbers have a periodicity of 130 months but, more importantly, that the series is highly persistent, with an order of cyclical fractional integration slightly above 0.30. That means that the series displays long memory, with a large degree of dependence between the observations that tends to disappear very slowly in time.

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