Time scale effects in acute association between air-pollution and mortality

Details Time scale effects in acute association between air-pollution and mortality Time scale effects in acute association between air-pollution and mortality

May 2011

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2011georl..3810806v&link_type=abstract

Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 38, Issue 10, CiteID L10806

Physics

Atmospheric Composition And Structure: Pollution: Urban And Regional (0305, 0478, 4251, 4325), Natural Hazards: Atmospheric (0370 3322, 3339) (0370, 3322, 3339), Natural Hazards: Health Impact, Natural Hazards: Exposure, Natural Hazards: Risk (8488)

Scientific paper

We used wavelet analysis and generalized additive models (GAM) to study timescale effects in the acute association between mortality and air-pollution. Daily averages of measured NO2 concentrations in the metropolitan Paris area are used as indicators of human exposure to urban air pollution from 2000 to 2004. The NO2 time series was decomposed with wavelet analysis to six independent variables representing different durations of population exposure. We used these variables as predictors in a mortality regression model and compared the coefficients estimated for the different timescales. We found a strong dependency of the exposure-response function on the duration of the air-pollution event. In contrast to previous studies that showed a monotone increase in the relationship between exposure to air-pollution and mortality from shorter to longer timescales, our results show a non-linear response suggesting that the overall acute effect consists of two discrete patterns: a short-term response (2 to 15 days) where mortality relative risks decrease to near null values with the duration of the air-pollution event; an intermediate timescale pattern (16 to 55 days) where mortality relative risk climbs back up to positive levels. The revealed pattern suggests that the overall acute effect of air-pollution on mortality reflects not only a short-term mortality displacement in a population already at high death risk due to chronic conditions but also the transition into this pool from the healthy population.

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