The Vrancea, Romania, earthquake of March 4, 1977 - a quite successful prediction

Details The Vrancea, Romania, earthquake of March 4, 1977 - a quite successful prediction The Vrancea, Romania, earthquake of March 4, 1977 - a quite successful prediction

Apr 1979

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1979pepi...18..274p&link_type=abstract

Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors, Volume 18, Issue 4, p. 274-287.

Physics

6

Scientific paper

The available data on the destructive intermediate earthquakes (M >= 63/4) in the Vrancea, Romania, region have been examined with the aim of revealing some time-magnitude regularities. The basic idea is that the total sequence (≅ 1100-1973 yr.), which appears as random, could be decomposed in some regular source-components which, by extrapolation, are superimposed to predict the future total sequence. The common nature of faulting (reverse dip-slip) and inferred regularities in the time-magnitude pattern of destructive Romanian earthquakes - (a) three active (seismic) time-bands alternating with quiet periods, the existence of (b) ``quasicycles'' and of (c) ``supercycles'' - led to the following predictions: (1) the occurrence of a shock with M ~ 63/4 - 7 in 1980 +/- 13 years; and (2) later earthquakes are predicted in 2005, in 2030-2040 (M ~ 63/4 - 7), and one with nearly maximum magnitude (M = 71/2-73/4) in 2070-2090. In every century, about 40 years represent a time interval of high seismic danger for Romania and, according to the proposed long-term time-magnitude model, three destructive earthquakes arc to occur in (and/or near) the evidenced seismic periods P1, P2 and P3. It is shown that, taking into account the actual difficulties involved in the earthquake prediction, the Vrancea destructive earthquake of March 4, 1977 (M = 7.1) was quite successfully predicted.

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