The use of ocean reanalysis products to initialize ENSO predictions

Details The use of ocean reanalysis products to initialize ENSO predictions The use of ocean reanalysis products to initialize ENSO predictions

Jul 2003

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2003georl..30m..27t&link_type=abstract

Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 30, Issue 13, pp. 27-1, CiteID 1694, DOI 10.1029/2003GL017664

Physics

6

Oceanography: Physical: El Nino, Oceanography: Physical: Air/Sea Interactions (0312), Meteorology And Atmospheric Dynamics: Numerical Modeling And Data Assimilation, Oceanography: General: Ocean Prediction

Scientific paper

With a three-dimensional variational (3D-Var) assimilation scheme and a hybrid coupled model, we have explored the possibility of initializing ENSO prediction models by assimilating NCEP (National Centers of Environment Prediction) reanalysis subsurface temperatures. Our results show that, compared to predictions without assimilation, the reanalysis product can effectively improve prediction of both Niño3 sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) at all lead times up to 12 months (in particular for lead times over 4-6 months) and of El Niño episodes. The oceanic analysis from the assimilation with the reanalysis product can be as good as those generated by directly assimilating subsurface in situ temperature observations.

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