The Shape of Solar Cycle Described by a Modified Gaussian Function

Details The Shape of Solar Cycle Described by a Modified Gaussian Function The Shape of Solar Cycle Described by a Modified Gaussian Function

Oct 2011

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2011soph..273..231d&link_type=abstract

Solar Physics, Volume 273, Issue 1, pp.231-253

Physics

3

Models, Solar Cycle, Sunspots

Scientific paper

The shape of each sunspot cycle is found to be well described by a modified Gaussian function with four parameters: peak size A, peak timing t m, width B, and asymmetry α. The four-parameter function can be further reduced to a two-parameter function by assuming that B and α are quadratic functions of t m, computed from the starting time ( T 0). It is found that the shape can be better fitted by the four-parameter function, while the remaining behavior of the cycle can be better predicted by the two-parameter function when using the data from a few (about two) months after the starting time defined by the smoothed monthly mean sunspot numbers. As a new solar cycle is ongoing, its remaining behavior can be constructed by the above four- or two-parameter function. A running test shows that the maximum amplitude of the cycle can be predicted to within 15% at about 25 months into the cycle based on the two-parameter function. A preliminary modeling to the first 24 months of data available for the current cycle indicates that the peak of cycle 24 may probably occur around June 2013±7 months with a size of 72±11. The above results are compared to those by quasi-Planck functions.

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