Physics
Scientific paper
Dec 2001
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2001agufmsa31a..03f&link_type=abstract
American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2001, abstract #SA31A-03
Physics
2427 Ionosphere/Atmosphere Interactions (0335), 2447 Modeling And Forecasting, 3337 Numerical Modeling And Data Assimilation, 3369 Thermospheric Dynamics (0358)
Scientific paper
The value of physical models for neutral density specification is two-fold. Firstly, they can be used to understand observed trends, such as semi-annual variations, to provide insight for the improvement in empirical models. Secondly, they can capture the time-dependent response to geomagnetic events, including the propagation of neutral density waves and the development of deep density holes. The problem in the use of physics-based models in operations is the need for accurate specification of the spatial and temporal variation of the geomagnetic sources at high latitudes. The approach in the future will be to apply data assimilation techniques to optimally combine data and the physical models. Such models will be able to use the observed neutral density response to automatically adjust and optimize the model forcing functions. The best estimate of the current state can then be used as the initial conditions for a short-term forecast.
Codrescu Mihail
Fuller-Rowell Tim
Minter C.
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