The Role of Data Assimilation in Modeling the Sun-Earth Connected System

Details The Role of Data Assimilation in Modeling the Sun-Earth Connected System The Role of Data Assimilation in Modeling the Sun-Earth Connected System

Dec 2002

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2002agufmsa22a..06f&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2002, abstract #SA22A-06

Physics

2722 Forecasting, 2794 Instruments And Techniques, 7594 Instruments And Techniques, 7843 Numerical Simulation Studies, 7894 Instruments And Techniques

Scientific paper

Developing the capability to model the Sun-Earth connected system, from the Solar corona to Earth's upper atmosphere, remains a grand challenge problem of space science. Research of model chains, which cover the entire domain, promises new scientific insight, as well as new abilities to predict the effect of solar disturbances on humans and human assets in space and on the ground. The nature of the coupling between adjacent elements of such chains can be quite different, ranging from a relatively simple driven response to considerably more complicated two-way interactions. In the latter case, as well as within most of the module elements, nonlinearities in the evolution often play a dominant role. By its very nature, an evolution described by nonlinear physics deviates from reality over time, even if the physical description is perfect. Therefore, a standalone model chain will ultimately be insufficient. Instead, predictive models typically must be corrected to remain close to the real evolution. At this point, assimilation of real-time measurements becomes critically important. With the exception of atmospheric and ionospheric modeling, we presently lack both approaches and concepts to deal with sparse data sources and nonlocal physical models. In this presentation, we will discuss the need for data assimilation, analyze present activities in the research community, and try to point out future directions for assimilation approaches.

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