The problem with the Brier score

Details The problem with the Brier score The problem with the Brier score

2004-01-10

arxiv.org/abs/physics/0401046v1

Physics

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics

Scientific paper

The Brier score is frequently used by meteorologists to measure the skill of
binary probabilistic forecasts. We show, however, that in simple idealised
cases it gives counterintuitive results. We advocate the use of an alternative
measure that has a more compelling intuitive justification.

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