Mathematics – Logic
Scientific paper
Sep 2004
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2004eostr..85q.351c&link_type=abstract
EOS Transactions, AGU, Volume 85, Issue 37, p. 351-353
Mathematics
Logic
2
Meetings, Global Change: Oceans (4203), Oceanography: Biological And Chemical: Biogeochemical Cycles (1615)
Scientific paper
It is now 25 years since the first papers appeared documenting by direct measurement the buildup of fossil fuel CO2 in the ocean. In the past quarter century the situation has changed enormously. What was at first a controversial detection of a signal above a large natural oceanic background is now a huge and easily recognizable geochemical perturbation on a scale not matched for a large part of Earth's history. Earth's atmospheric concentration of CO2 is now higher than experienced during at least the last 400,000 years. The accumulated oceanic burden of fossil fuel CO2 is now >400 billion metric tons. The net CO2 gas invasion rate across the air-sea interface, driven by the growing global mean pCO2 difference between air and sea, is now about 1 million metric tons CO2 per hour, and the decrease in surface water pH is now about 0.1 pH units. The signal is detectable worldwide, and has penetrated to >1000-m depth. And simple extrapolations based upon well-recognized energy use scenarios, such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) IS92A ``Business as Usual'' projection, lead to oceanic pCO2 levels of ~600 ppm, and a pH change of about 0.3, in the second half of this century with far greater changes possible in the future. Without the benefit of this massive disposal in the upper ocean of mankind's artifact of energy use, the world would face an overwhelming atmospheric CO2 problem.
Brewer Peter
Cicerone Ralph
Haugan Peter
Merlivat Liliane
Ohsumi Takashi
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