The Laplace-Jaynes approach to induction

Details The Laplace-Jaynes approach to induction The Laplace-Jaynes approach to induction

2007-03-12

arxiv.org/abs/physics/0703126v2

Physics

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability

38 pages, 1 figure. V2: altered discussion on some points, corrected typos, added references

Scientific paper

An approach to induction is presented, based on the idea of analysing the context of a given problem into `circumstances'. This approach, fully Bayesian in form and meaning, provides a complement or in some cases an alternative to that based on de Finetti's representation theorem and on the notion of infinite exchangeability. In particular, it gives an alternative interpretation of those formulae that apparently involve `unknown probabilities' or `propensities'. Various advantages and applications of the presented approach are discussed, especially in comparison to that based on exchangeability. Generalisations are also discussed.

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