The interannual variability of temperature in the polar stratosphere during the winter: the influence of the QBO phase and an 11-yr solar cycle

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Scientific paper

The relation between the temperature of polar stratosphere in winter (from November until March), the phase of the QBO, and the activity of the 11-yr sunspot cycle is investigated. The results obtained by defining the QBO phase separately at 30 and 50 hPa are compared. It is shown that the large distinction in the distribution of major warming cases at various QBO phases exists depending on how the QBO phase is defined (at 30 or 50 hPa). A correlation analysis of the relation of the stratospheric temperature during different QBO phases and the activity of the 11-yr solar cycle has shown that there is significant (99%) correlation only in the westerly phase of QBO, and in February. Comparisons of cases of major winter stratospheric warmings during different phases of QBO with periods of high and low activity of 11-yr sunspot cycle do not result in such a simple conclusion. If warmings not only in January and February are considered, then during westerly and easterly phases of QBO the warmings are observed both in periods of high and low solar activity.

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