The Interacting Branching Process as a Simple Model of Innovation

Details The Interacting Branching Process as a Simple Model of Innovation The Interacting Branching Process as a Simple Model of Innovation

2010-03-30

arxiv.org/abs/1003.5797v2

Physics

Physics and Society

4 pages, 4 figures

Scientific paper

We describe innovation in terms of a generalized branching process. Each new invention pairs with any existing one to produce a number of offspring, which is Poisson distributed with mean p. Existing inventions die with probability p/\tau at each generation. In contrast to mean field results, no phase transition occurs; the chance for survival is finite for all p > 0. For \tau = \infty, surviving processes exhibit a bottleneck before exploding super-exponentially - a growth consistent with a law of accelerating returns. This behavior persists for finite \tau. We analyze, in detail, the asymptotic behavior as p \to 0.

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