The First Space Weather Forecast Models from the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling

Details The First Space Weather Forecast Models from the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling The First Space Weather Forecast Models from the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling

May 2007

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2007agusmsh23a..10g&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Spring Meeting 2007, abstract #SH23A-10

Physics

7833 Mathematical And Numerical Techniques (0500, 3200), 7924 Forecasting (2722), 7959 Models, 7999 General Or Miscellaneous

Scientific paper

One main objective of the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling (CISM) is to develop forecast models (FM) for the Sun-Earth chain, and to mature them close to the operational stage. The Sun-Earth chain comprises empirical and physical models. Among the former is the Planetary Equivalent Amplitude FM with a 1 to 7 day prediction of the daily Ap and a 3 to 24 hour prediction of the running 3 hourly ap. We employ a linear filter technique which is driven by real-time ACE solar wind speed and AFWA Ap/ap data. Among the latter is the Ambient Solar Wind FM with a 1 to 5 day prediction of solar wind parameters in 6 hour intervals. It is driven by daily NSO/SOLIS synoptic maps. We employ the Wang-Sheeley-Arge algorithm to transform these into inner boundary conditions for the ideal MHD code ENLIL, which propagates the solar wind structures out to Earth and beyond. We are also preparing a Geospace FM with short-range predictions for magnetospheric and ionospheric parameters, which is driven by real-time ACE measurements. The transition from science to forecast model follows along these main steps: the science model is validated against various metrics, software engineering matures the transition candidate, and useful forecast products are derived from the forecast model.

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