The E region at 69°N, 19°E: Trends, significances, and detectability

Details The E region at 69°N, 19°E: Trends, significances, and detectability The E region at 69°N, 19°E: Trends, significances, and detectability

May 2011

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2011jgra..11605309h&link_type=abstract

Journal of Geophysical Research, Volume 116, Issue A5, CiteID A05309

Physics

Geophysics

2

Ionosphere: Auroral Ionosphere (2704), Global Change: Climate Dynamics (0429, 3309), Mathematical Geophysics: Time Series Analysis (1872, 1988, 4277, 4475), Mathematical Geophysics: Uncertainty Quantification (1873, 1990), Mathematical Geophysics: Stochastic Processes (3235, 4468, 4475, 7857)

Scientific paper

Earlier, it has been demonstrated that ionospheric parameters such as critical frequencies and layer heights exhibit long-term trends. These trends have been reported to be both positive and negative depending on parameter and geographic location, forming a picture that is difficult to explain in terms of ionospheric physics combined with the widely accepted climatic cooling of the underlying middle atmosphere. Here we present updated results from Tromsø (69°N, 19°E) confirming the previously identified negative trend in E region critical frequency (and therefore electron density) and altitude (commensurable with a shrinking of the underlying middle atmosphere). We note that the E region data sets are not necessarily best described by Gaussian distributions. We quantify uncertainties and required time series lengths for trend detectability on the basis of the true probability density functions, giving high credibility to climate change in the lower thermosphere.

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