The Dimensionality of Stochasticaly Driven Systems and the Limits of Predictability of Magnetospheric Dynamics

Details The Dimensionality of Stochasticaly Driven Systems and the Limits of Predictability of Magnetospheric Dynamics The Dimensionality of Stochasticaly Driven Systems and the Limits of Predictability of Magnetospheric Dynamics

Dec 2001

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2001agufmsm31a0750g&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2001, abstract #SM31A-0750

Physics

2722 Forecasting, 2784 Solar Wind/Magnetosphere Interactions, 2788 Storms And Substorms, 7839 Nonlinear Phenomena

Scientific paper

In contrast to tropospheric weather, where the solar radiation is essentially constant, the solar wind has periods of large excursions. It can therefore be argued that the limits of predicatability of the Solar-Wind driven Magnetosphere-Ionosphere System has two components, the intrinsic deterministic chaos of the magnetospheric dynamics, which can be observed even during extended periods of constant driving, as in magnetic cloud events, and the externally imposed variation of the Solar Wind driver.l The variability due to the driver is explored by considering the properties of well known stochastic systems, like the Lorenz and Rossler systems, under various driving conditions. We show that the observed propoerties of the combined system (eg dimensionality) exhibit an abrupt transition from that of the driven system to that of the driver. The transitions takes place at a normalized driving amplitude (amplitude of driver over amplitude of driven system) equal to unity, and has a half-width of less than a factor of two. The narrow width of the transition region suggests that the external component of unpredictability is limited to transitions between well defined stochastic states.

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